MANNY PACQUIAO vs. MIGUEL COTTO

THE NEXT SUPER-FIGHT

Part 3: The Prediction

Ahhhh, the prediction, it is half the fun of a fight. It doesn't need to be a big fight, or even a hard one to predict, just as long as you can ponder, debate, and make the call. How many times have you sat down to Friday Night Fights and thought to yourself, "this is a recipe for an upset, I'm taking the little guy". When the fights get bigger it just means you have more research to do: who beat who, who looked good against what type of fighter, who's bigger, who's faster, which guy cuts, what shirt was I wearing last time he won? The prediction can lead to months of back and forth anguish, sleepless nights, and all sorts of mathematical equations. You read another person's prediction and think, "maybe they know something I don't". You ignore house chores, and procrastinate when it comes to anything that might take away from fight study. In the end it's all about bragging rights...telling people you knew all along what was going to happen...you are the Nostradamus of fistic fury. On the flip side, once it's out there you can't take it back. All your ranting and raving, all the fights you watched, and all the hours you spent reading on the internet were for nothing. Now you have catch up on bills you ignored, the laundry that hasn't been touched in a month, and that damn shed that you never finished building. Remember though, if you get it right, you will lifted through the city on the shoulders of others, parades will be formed in your honor, and there is no doubt that streets will be named after you.

I think I am looking forward to this fight so much because it seems like it's been so long since a PPV fight came along that people were actually split on their predictions. In the Floyd Mayweather Jr.- Juan Manuel Marquez fight, was there any real question as to who would win? Even if you were a big time Marquez fan you had to know that it was a long shot. When Manny Pacquiao took on Ricky Hatton I thought that it would be a tougher fight, but I always thought it would finish with Hatton on the canvas. The last PPV fight that had such a split opinion might be Miguel Cotto - Shane Mosley. (I'm obviously not referring to the minor PPV cards like Latin Fury and such).

I separated this series into three parts for several reasons: I have major respect for both fighters, I have respect for the massive fan base of both fighters, and I am just plain excited about this match-up. Each guy has a legitimate chance to win this fight. They both have giant hearts, solid resumes, and great boxing skill.

Manny Pacquiao has looked like a world beater as of late, steam rolling through David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, and Ricky Hatton. Miguel Cotto looks as if he has seen better days, being stopped for the first time at the hands of Antonio Margarito, and pulling out the decision against Joshua Clottey by a thin margin. There are some questions left lingering with both of these fighters... Was Hatton made for Pacquiao? Was Joshua Clottey that good, or did Miguel Cotto lose a step? Does Pacman look better than he actually is? Did Cotto get a little fight taken out of him by Margarito? Can Pacquiao handle Cotto's body work? Can Cotto handle Pacquiao's speed?

MANNY PACQUIAO (49-3-2,37KO)

I firmly believe no matter what Jim Lampley and his cohorts wanted us to believe, Oscar De La Hoya didn't look good against Steve Forbes. I will fully admit going into his fight with Pacquiao all I paid attention to was the difference in size, not where the two were at in their respective careers, which as we all know turned out to be a mistake. With Ricky Hatton, I don't think he is as bad as people have made him out to be since his destruction at the hands of Pacman. He always had a habit of going in face first, he had done it his whole career. There were only a few guys who took full advantage of that: Floyd Mayweather Jr, Manny Pacquiao, and Louis Collazo. Collazo was a slick boxer who caught Hatton late in his fight with Hatton, but didn't have the explosiveness that Pacquiao has to finish him off. I think that Manny Pacquiao deserves to be rated as the pound for pound best these days because he is doing something that not many people in the sport are, stepping up. I don't mean that to say that other fighters are chicken, but Manny can make money without Cotto or Hatton. He wants to be the best, and fights like this are what puts him there.

MIGUEL COTTO (34-1, 27KO)

Miguel Cotto on the other hand is coming off of a decision over Joshua Clottey, and didn't look his best. My question to you is, has anyone looked good against Clottey? Clottey to me is a Winky Wright type fighter... even if you beat him, you'll never look good against him. Clottey was beating Margarito until he claims he hurt his hands. Either way he stopped fighting the same way he did against Cotto. So maybe that fight looks the same no matter when it happened(before or after Margarito).

I always felt going into fights that Cotto had finally bit off more than he could chew. Against Judah I thought uppercuts and speed could be a major factor, but Cotto weathered the storm, went to work and broke Judah down. Against Malignaggi I thought Cotto would have issue with his boxing skill and movement, but Cotto stuck to his game-plan, cut off the ring, and punished Malignaggi. Shane Mosley was a big, strong, fast, and skilled welterweight; I was sure Cotto was over his head, but he boxed, moved, and showed some skills I didn't know he had (keep in mind I never doubted Cotto, just questioned him).

I have always thought that Miguel Cotto's weakness was fast handed slick boxers like Paulie Malignaggi , Zab Judah, or Shane Mosley. Cotto disposed of three of those fighters, he cut off the ring, boxed beautifully, and broke each guy down as if he were chopping down a tree. (Mosley wasn't chopped down, but he did lose the fight).

In the end the two fighters that gave Cotto the most trouble were straight ahead rough and tumble boxers, Antonio Margarito and Joshua Clottey. Two sturdy guys who come to fight, don't back up, and have granite chins.

BREAKING IT DOWN:

For some reason the fight that I think about most when trying to make a prediction is the Zab Judah vs. Miguel Cotto fight. A small, fast, hard hitting, skilled Junior Welterweight taking on Miguel Cotto. Cotto had some rough moments early on and eventually his size and strength was imposed on the smaller fighter. The major difference is that Pacquiao is a much smarter fighter than Zab Judah, and can punch from all angles. I also have zero questions about Pacman's heart, corner, or his ability to change game-plans in the middle of a fight.

I do think that Manny Pacquiao is explosive enough to hurt and perhaps even KO Miguel Cotto if he's not careful. I think back to Allen Green on Friday Night Fights talking about different kinds of knockout power, some have brute strength, and some speed from out of nowhere; Pacquiao seems to have the later. The early parts of this fight are very dangerous for Miguel Cotto.

I can see this fight going somewhat similar to the Zab Judah fight. Pacquiao will be very dangerous early with his hand-speed and what I consider explosive power, but I think Cotto will weather the Pacman tornado and take over in the later rounds. I feel that Cotto will take some punishment from Pacquiao's early movement and fast combinations, but will be doing what Teddy Atlas refers to as "putting money in the bank", as he works Pacquiao anyway he can to slow him down in the second half of the fight. Ricky Hatton said after his fight with Louis Collazo that he he could feel the force of the punches more at 147 pounds than he could at 140. Pacquiao is not only facing a harder puncher than Collazo, but he will also be facing a guy who will be able to hit him, unlike his last couple fights.

My official prediction is that the first half of the fight is all Pacquiao with Cotto's methodical style and bodywork taking it's toll late. I think Pacquiao's streak stops here.

PREDICTION: COTTO TKO 10

Hopefully I am correct because I really don't want to finish that damn shed!

I leave you with one final question, no matter who you pick in the Cotto-Pacquiao fight, who do you think has a better chance against Floyd Mayweather Jr.?